$
%
years
Refinance Likelihood (%)
%
years
$
%
Total cost: $176,472
Total cost over 7 years (payments only)
Payment
Total Paid
$196,136
Balance Left
$326,835
Payment
Total Paid
$193,393
Balance Left
$324,121
Payment
Total Paid
$176,472
Balance Left
$321,241
Payment
Total Paid
$259,285
Balance Left
$232,723
Lower is better
30-Year Fixed (Par)
$196,136
30-Year Fixed (Points)
$193,393
5-Year ARM
$176,472
15-Year Fixed
$259,285
Key factors for your decision
⚠️ ARM adjusts in year 5, but you plan to stay 7 years. Rate risk exists.
Lower refi likelihood means you'll likely keep this loan. Points could pay off.
Planning to move in 7 years: Total cost matters more than rate
ARM adjusts in year 5 - you'll face rate risk before moving
Buying points breaks even in 5.1 years - worth it for your 7-year timeline
Best for 7 years: 5-Year ARM (total cost: $176,472)
For a 7-year hold, 5-Year ARM costs the least at $176,472 total. You'll have $321,241 remaining when you sell.
Here are the exact formulas behind your numbers. No black boxes — just math.
Total Cost at Year X
Remaining Balance
Best Option
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